Polymarket crypto odds flip bearish as Bitcoin slips below $79K
Bitcoin's drop below $79,000 on May 17 triggered sharp repricing across Polymarket's crypto price contracts. The probability that Bitcoin hits $75,000 in May jumped to 54%, according to BlockBeats News, while the likelihood it exceeds $78,000 on May 17 fell to 16.7%, per Catcher Predict monitoring. A separate contract priced the $76,000 threshold at 82%. Meanwhile, more than $18 million has traded on Polymarket's June contract for Bitcoin reaching $150,000, where traders have slashed odds amid the broader downdraft. The $150,000 target contracts had been drawing heavy trading over the past two weeks as crypto enthusiasm resurfaced.
The repricing on three simultaneous Bitcoin threshold contracts shows Polymarket traders treating the platform as a real-time sentiment gauge for crypto spot prices. That positioning invites direct comparison with derivatives exchanges and heightens regulatory exposure given Polymarket's contested U.S. accessibility.
The repricing joins a second crypto contract flipping bearish on the same day, as Polymarket leans into exchange-specific and threshold-target crypto bets just weeks after its eight-month volume streak ended and Kalshi posted consecutive records.