Polymarket traders price US AI safety bill passage at 13% before 2027
Traders on the prediction market Polymarket are pricing a 13% probability that the US Congress passes a federal AI safety bill before 2027, with Yes shares trading at 13 cents. The low odds, recorded May 30, reflect deep skepticism among market participants about near-term legislative action on artificial intelligence regulation. The market serves as a concrete sentiment gauge for investors tracking AI regulatory risk. No federal AI safety legislation has advanced significantly in the current Congress, and bettor pricing suggests little confidence that the dynamics will shift before the 2027 deadline. Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, has increasingly become a reference point for real-time sentiment on policy outcomes.
The 13% pricing gives institutional AI investors a liquid, real-time hedge against regulatorytail-risk that equity options markets cannot cleanly replicate. Any sharp upward repricing would signal genuine legislative momentum faster than traditional policy trackers.