Kalshi traders price Spencer Pratt at 64–80% to reach L.A. mayor runoff
Kalshi prediction-market traders are pricing Spencer Pratt at roughly 64–80% to advance past Tuesday's June 3 Los Angeles mayoral primary to the November runoff, with the most recent tier-1 source showing 79%. The pricing fluctuated in the final days: 78% on May 31, 80% according to an X post by Kyle Kuzma on June 1, and 64% to finish second as of June 2. Traders forecast Pratt would pick up 29% of the primary vote. Incumbent Karen Bass leads but appears likely to fall short of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Meanwhile, Kalshi posted that Bass's re-election odds dropped 10% overnight on May 28, while odds for opponent Rick Caruso moved in the opposite direction. The markets reflect active trader engagement heading into the vote, even as Nithya Raman has seen a polling surge.
Kalshi's CFTC-regulated political contracts are drawing celebrity-driven retail attention to a mayoral primary, but the 10% overnight swing in Bass's odds without named volume or liquidity shows these remain thin markets. Pratt's reality-TV name recognition is generating platform buzz without offering traders reliable size or execution quality.
Kalshi has now broadcast live price-point milestones across five major races in recent coverage — California governor, World Cup 2026, LA mayor, and two others — deepening the pattern of using its official channels to promote event-contract odds in real time.