Polymarket projects Raman over Pratt in LA mayor race as Bass odds plunge 10 points
Polymarket projected Saturday that Los Angeles city council member Nithya Raman will advance to the LA mayoral runoff, pricing her at a 98% probability of defeating Republican Spencer Pratt in the primary contest. The projection, which follows the June 2 mayoral primary, comes after Pratt'sadvancement odds collapsed from earlier levels and incumbent Mayor Karen Bass's odds plunged more than 10 points by late May. Polymarket's official account posted that traders were pricing Pratt at just 4% to advance on June 6. The latest ballot drop placed Raman within 1 percentage point of Pratt's vote total. The market implies Raman is on track to face Bass in the November runoff, though official results remain outstanding.
Kalshi traders who held Pratt at 80% runoff odds just over a week ago now face an 79-point loss. The pricing error exposes how retail-driven attention on celebrity candidates can swamp thin political-event order books before late ballots correct the misread.
Polymarket's LA mayor pricing follows a pattern of aggressively promoted event-contract odds on celebrity-driven political races that has drawn CFTC scrutiny and platform rivalry with Kalshi across four major races in recent coverage.