Polymarket traders cut 2026 inflation odds to 25%, price 36% chance of two Fed hikes
Polymarket traders are pricing a 36% probability that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates twice in 2026. Separately, inflation expectations on the same platform have shifted, with the probability that 2026 inflation exceeds 4.5% falling to 25%. Both figures reflect ongoing repricing of macroeconomic event contracts on the crypto-native prediction platform. The two contracts capture Fed policy sentiment across different time horizons and risk dimensions.
Polymarket's 36% dual-hike pricing sits below Kalshi's competing Fed contract, sharpening the contest between the two CFTC-registered platforms for macro contract credibility. Traders executing against these odds face the same opacity problem that haunts both venues: neither discloses post-release volume, spread, or market-maker depth, so a 36% print cannot be distinguished from thin-book drift or genuine conviction.
The parallel inflation contract at 25% adds a second macro timeline that splits already scarce two-sided flow. Institutional desks routing hedges against CME futures need transparency these platforms still withhold. Kalshi's 54% hike contract and Polymarket's dual-hike market now compete for the same trader base with nearly identical data blind spots. The platform that first publishes real execution metrics will absorb the flow currently staying away; until then both contracts trade as sentiment gauges, not executable hedges.