Polymarket traders slash crypto price odds across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin
Polymarket traders are pricing bearish odds across major cryptocurrencies heading into May's close. By May 24, Bitcoin's probability of hitting $100,000 this year had dropped to 37%, down from 49% on May 10 — a 12 percentage point decline in roughly two weeks. A separate contract prices 75% odds that Bitcoin falls to $70,000 before reaching $90,000. For Ethereum, Polymarket assigned 56% probability that ETH drops below $2,000 by month end following a 9% weekly crash. Dogecoin faces 62% odds of closing May below $0.10, with DOGE trading at $0.10532 on May 21. The contracts reflect deepening negative sentiment among crypto traders on the platform as the month nears its end.
Hyperliquid already overtook Polymarket in BTC binary volume this week. Any sustained bearish repricing on Polymarket's largest crypto verticals will accelerate that migration and compound the platform's existing pressures from Kalshi's regulatory expansion and five concurrent federal probes.
This is Polymarket's fourth major crypto pricing cluster this month — BTC, ETH, DOGE, and now year-end $100K odds — as the platform fends off simultaneous competitive pressure from Kalshi's regulated crypto contracts and Hyperliquid's zero-fee BTC binaries.