Polymarket tops Hyperliquid in daily fees as HYPE $52 odds collapse to 19%
Polymarket overtook Hyperliquid in 24-hour fees on May 18, generating roughly $1.2 million in daily taker fees. Meanwhile, Polymarket traders slashed the probability that Hyperliquid's HYPE token would hit $52 in May to 19%, down from higher levels, using Binance HYPEUSDT perpetual contract data for settlement. HYPE was trading around $59.71 after a record high, with traders assigning nearly 40% odds it reaches $100 in 2026. Hyperliquid's own HIP-4 event contracts surpassed $92 million in first-month volume, mostly Bitcoin-linked, as the exchange expanded into validator-driven prediction markets. Intercontinental Exchange, which invested $1 billion in Polymarket in October 2025 and added $600 million in March 2026, has separately flagged Hyperliquid as a competitive threat.
Hyperliquid's fee revenue from perpetual futures is now trailing a pure prediction market, intensifying pressure to make its new HIP-4 event contracts a material revenue line before Q3. ICE's $1.6 billion Polymarket stake means any sustained fee crossover strengthens the case for blending prediction markets into traditional exchange infrastructure rather than treating them as separate verticals.
Becomes the third direct competitive challenge Polymarket has faced this week alone, after Kalshi flipped its crypto volume lead and Hyperliquid surpassed its BTC binary volume, leaving the platform defending market share on multiple fronts simultaneously.