Polymarket lists daily NVIDIA market and partners with Nasdaq ahead of earnings
Polymarket has listed a daily up-or-down market for NVIDIA (NVDA) stock as of May 20, 2026, letting traders bet on whether shares finish higher or lower each session. Traders on the platform are pricing in real risk around the AI bellwether, with some contracts targeting whether NVDA tops $240 after Q1 earnings. The listing comes alongside a newly announced partnership with Nasdaq, though terms remain undisclosed. A Wall Street Journal columnist argued Nvidia remains cheap at its $5.4 trillion market cap, creating tension with Polymarket's bearish-leaning sentiment. Crypto markets broadly turned bullish ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report.
Kalshi must now defend its standalone sourcing model against Polymarket's Nasdaq-backed data partnership on equity-linked contracts. Any persistent pricing gap on overlapping AI-stock markets will cost Kalshi institutional flow as traders arbitrage the cheaper venue.
Brings Polymarket's Nasdaq-linked AI-stock launches to three separate verticals this month — daily NVDA price moves, pre-IPO valuation contracts, and SpaceX odds — as the platform systematizes its data partnership across equity-linked prediction markets.