Polymarket odds of Iran peace deal crater to 31% after diplomatic breakdown
Polymarket odds for a US-Iran peace deal collapsed from over 75% to 27% by June 11 as diplomatic prospects deteriorated over Iran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment, then edged up slightly to 31%. The plunge came in under two weeks amid escalating nuclear tensions. Trading activity is also flowing into adjacent war markets on the platform, including bets on potential Iranian regime change. The market recalculation reflects a sharp reversal from recent pricing that had seen peace-deal probabilities climb above 50% following movements in Strait of Hormuz traffic signals, underscoring the volatility of geopolitical event contracts.
Polymarket's 31% print resets the baseline for competing ceasefire and regime-change markets, forcing traders with overlapping June 30 positions to reconcile sharply contradictory probability paths or face concentrated settlement risk.
The peace-deal market has fully reversed its Strait of Hormuz spike above 50%, joining the earlier Iranian airspace closure cluster in showing how quickly Polymarket's geopolitical sentiment can swing from optimistic to distressed pricing.