Polymarket prices Hamas disarmament at 61% after Trump's Board of Peace agreement
Polymarket traders are pricing a 61% probability that Hamas disarms by December 31, 2026. The market has drawn $2.98 million in trading volume. Pricing follows Trump's Board of Peace agreement and reflects bettor sentiment on the newly announced diplomatic initiative's outcome. The contract offers a live sentiment gauge on Middle East diplomacy. The year-end deadline compresses the resolution timeline.
The 61% price and $2.98 million volume show prediction markets are now the first venue where geopolitical deal sentiment prints in real dollars. For CFTC-registered platforms, this contract tests whether event contracts on armed-group outcomes can attract serious flow without drawing the regulatory heat that sports and election markets already face. Traders treat the price as a live referendum on Trump's diplomacy, but the settlement mechanics are untested: who verifies Hamas disarmament, and by what standard?
That ambiguity matters because a contested resolution would dent platform credibility ahead of broader geopolitical contract expansion. The year-end deadline means any stall in talks could force violent repricing. Polymarket, this is a volume win in a non-political vertical; for competitors, it signals an opening to list similar diplomacy contracts if settlement infrastructure holds up.