Polymarket odds of CLARITY Act passing in 2026 fall to 38% from February peak above 80%
Polymarket traders cut the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 38% as of July 26, down from a peak above 80% in February. One X post cited a drop to near 37%, down from 42% the prior Tuesday. Galaxy Research lowered its own estimate to 30% on Friday. The repricing reflects collapsing market confidence in the crypto-focused bill's legislative prospects over a single week. The CLARITY Act is pending legislation relevant to digital asset regulation.
The speed of this collapse turns the CLARITY contract into a case study on prediction-market fragility for policy traders. A 42-point drop in five months, with half of it in one week, means any institutional desk using Polymarket odds to hedge crypto equity exposure faces gap risk that dwarfs the underlying policy signal. Galaxy Research's separate 30% estimate shows traditional analysts are converging below the market price, not above it, suggesting traders may still be catching down.
For Polymarket, repeated violent repricing on the same contract undermines its pitch as a stable reference rate for serious capital. Kalshi's competing CLARITY contract trades in the same information soup, so neither venue offers shelter. The institutional market makers both platforms need will demand proof that policy contracts can hold a level before committing size.
The CLARITY contract collapse from above 80% to the mid-30s marks the second dramatic repricing this month, after the related contract briefly touched 24% just days earlier, suggesting the market cannot stabilize a legislative probability amid volatile congressional signals.