Polymarket and Kalshi price Florida Senate race heavily for Republicans
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing the Florida Senate race between Democrat Angie Nixon and Republican Ashley Moody at 91% and 90% Republican odds respectively, according to a Newsweek report dated August 19, 2026. The lopsided pricing indicates strong market confidence in a GOP hold of the seat.
Shows prediction markets pricing a competitive Senate race as a near-certain Republican hold, offering a real-time sentiment read that diverges from traditional polling and may signal how traders weight incumbency and state-level fundamentals.
Polymarket and Kalshi have now priced three separate political contests with extreme confidence this month — the Florida Senate race, Alaska's primary, and 2028 Democratic nomination odds — as both platforms strain to prove political markets can hold stable levels for institutional liquidity.