Neil Paine's tracker aggregates college football playoff odds across four platforms
Neil Paine launched a 2026 College Football Playoff odds tracker that aggregates meta-consensus market odds across Polymarket, Kalshi, DraftKings, and FanDuel. The Substack tool covers which teams will make and win the playoff. Separately, Kalshi Sports posted on X that Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Texas are nearly tied to win the National Championship, though no specific probabilities were disclosed. Paine's tracker went live one day before the Kalshi social post.
Paine's tracker treats prediction market odds as a new data layer that traders and media now treat on par with sportsbook lines. By weighting Polymarket, Kalshi, DraftKings, and FanDuel equally, he signals that regulated venues have reached sufficient liquidity to publish credible consensus prices. For operators, inclusion in the tracker becomes a reputation benchmark: omitted platforms look peripheral.
Traders gain a single reference point to spot mispricings across venues, which should compress arbitrage windows faster. The college football season will test whether these markets produce sharp enough collective prices to justify treating them as standalone inputs. Novig's $125 million first-week volume already suggests the four listed platforms may not be the complete picture for long. Platform marketing teams now face pressure to court independent aggregators as aggressively as they court liquidity providers.