Pew study finds Polymarket users concentrate most trades in one topic
A Pew Research Center study of Polymarket user behavior found that most traders concentrated about three-quarters of their trades on a single topic, with sports traders the most active at 69 trades on average. Crypto traders averaged 59 trades, and politics traders showed similar concentration. The typical user placed 46 trades over a six-week period, spent slightly over $600, and finished with a net loss of less than $2. The data suggests Polymarket users specialize rather than diversify across market categories.
Polymarket's user base of narrow specialists is a fragile revenue base against rivals courting broader engagement. The platform earns fees per trade, so traders who cluster in one category and trade small dollar amounts cap volume growth. Congressional staff weighing a federal sports-contract ban may cite this profile as evidence that prediction markets remain a niche product, not a mainstream financial utility worth protecting.
If lawmakers see Polymarket users as unsophisticated dabblers rather than informed price discoverers, defending CFTC registration becomes harder. Kalshi's push into institutional flow and live election data hubs targets exactly the breadth this study says Polymarket lacks.