Congressional aides expect insider-trading ban on prediction markets to pass, while Canadians oppose
A slim majority of Capitol Hill aides expect legislation banning insider trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to pass, according to a Cryptobriefing survey of congressional staffers published July 6. A separate subscriber survey by The Logic found most respondents do not support legalizing prediction markets in Canada, with both Kalshi and Polymarket noted as having recently come under scrutiny. Sources did not specify timing or scope for the potential U.S. legislation.
For Kalshi and Polymarket, congressional staff expectations of a ban create advance warning of a compliance burden they cannot yet scope or time. Both platforms must now budget for surveillance systems that flag congressional and staff trades without knowing whether the bill mandates disclosure, account closure, or criminal penalties.
The uncertainty is itself costly: legal teams and engineering cycles diverted to preemptive compliance are cycles not spent on product expansion or state preemption fights. Meanwhile, Canadian opposition closes a potential growth market where neither platform currently operates, removing a revenue hedge if U.S. sports contracts face federal restriction. The platforms face tightening margins on two borders at once.