Longshot bets losing 98% of time dominate Kalshi and Polymarket trading
A Bloomberg analysis finds that Kalshi and Polymarket users primarily trade longshot contracts that lose approximately 98% of the time. The trading pattern across both platforms shows bettors repeatedly favoring low-probability outcomes. The behavior contrasts with the platforms' marketing as information aggregators or truth machines. The data suggests casino-style wagering rather than efficient price discovery dominates actual trading activity.
The 98% loss rate reshapes how operators and regulators view prediction-market risk profiles. Kalshi and Polymarket, it undermines the pitch that these venues produce superior forecasts through informed trading. If most volume is irrational longshot chasing, the price signal is noise, not signal. Traders treating the platforms as forecasting tools face a structural headwind: the crowd they are learning from is systematically wrong.
Regulators weighing retail access to event contracts may cite this pattern as evidence that the product functions as gambling with a scholarly veneer. The platforms' next product and marketing choices will show whether they try to attract sharper flow or lean into the entertainment trading that already pays the bills.