Trading
Kalshi recession odds hit all-time low of 10%
Kalshi prediction-market traders have priced the odds of a US recession this year at 10%, an all-time low for the contract. The figure comes from Kalshi's recession-linked event contract on the regulated platform.
Why this matters?
Recession probability is a closely watched macro benchmark; the all-time low reading on a regulated platform gives institutional and retail traders a tradable signal on economic sentiment.
The bigger picture
Second Kalshi macro contract this week to draw significant trader positioning after Fed-hike odds repriced, as the platform works to diversify beyond sports amid Robinhood's Rothera test and Polymarket's World Cup rivalry.
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