Kalshi holds 76% of Q3 volume as Polymarket US grows 66%
Kalshi captured 76% of tracked prediction-market volume in the third quarter, according to TokenPost data, across $179.6 billion in face-value contracts and $56.1 billion paid out. Polymarket's venues combined for 27% of volume, while Novig accounted for 1%. Polymarket US specifically grew 66%. Kalshi reached $65 billion in October trading volume, while Polymarket US set a new trading record ahead of the midterm elections. Robinhood previously generated 21% more revenue from event contracts than from equity trading during the second quarter.
Kalshi's volume dominance is thinner than the headline suggests because its pricing edge depends on sportsbook liquidity it does not control. The platform's share hit 76% while FanDuel's market-making presence flipped and re-flipped in Weeks 3 and 4. That volatility means Kalshi's lead rests on partnership terms rather than captive infrastructure. Any FanDuel renegotiation or revocation would erase the pricing advantage within a single week.
DraftKings is rebuilding its own event-contract stack, so Kalshi cannot wait long to lock FanDuel into a long-term arrangement or build independent liquidity. The August disruption already proved retail traders abandon interrupted platforms within days. A second consecutive pricing loss would signal that Kalshi's volume lead is structurally fragile.
Kalshi's 76% volume share joins Robinhood's $173 million quarterly event-contract revenue as proof that prediction markets have become a core distribution layer for retail brokers and sportsbooks alike, with both platforms routing through partner venues they do not own.