Former quant trader questions Kalshi ETH-PERP volume-to-open-interest ratio
Former quant trader Beni flagged Kalshi's ETH-PERP statistics in an X post carried by Odaily Planet Daily, noting about $539 million in 24-hour volume against open interest roughly 1/174th that size. Beni raised questions about whether the turnover reflects genuine positioning. The platform has not published a detailed rebuttal to the specific calculation. Competing coverage links the episode to broader scrutiny of Kalshi's reported crypto and event-contract volumes.
Volume-to-open-interest ratios above 100:1 signal churn rather than sustained institutional positioning, because each dollar of open interest is turning over multiple times daily with no net accumulation. Market makers use that ratio to gauge whether an exchange hosts real two-sided flow or inflated prints from a small set of accounts. Beni's allegation lands while Kalshi volume estimates diverge sharply as wash-trading questions emerge already hangs unresolved, compounding a credibility gap that pushes serious traders toward venues with cleaner audit trails.
The CFTC's intensifying perpetual-futures scrutiny raises the stakes: if regulators demand transaction-level disclosure, Kalshi's current reporting standards may not satisfy. Competitors can weaponize this uncertainty in their own regulatory filings, painting themselves as the transparent alternative. The first platform to publish verified, single-event volume will set the disclosure bar that determines where institutional capital flows next.