Kalshi traders price Bitcoin year-end below $80K despite 20% rally
Kalshi traders are pricing low odds that Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 in the near term and now see the cryptocurrency ending 2026 near $75,000-$77,000, below current levels. The bearish year-end targets come despite a 20% weekly rally that briefly drove Bitcoin past $79,500. On Polymarket, odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000 reached 85% as the price neared that level. A separate Kalshi contract prices a 59% chance Bitcoin touches a higher August high after cracking $72,500.
The speed of bearish repricing on Kalshi creates a direct arbitrage with Polymarket's more optimistic $80,000 contract, which hit 85% odds on the same price action. Traders who spot the divergence can exploit the gap if either platform lags spot moves. Kalshi's thin crypto books mean conviction builds slowly, so contrarian bets on a sustained rally carry less slippage risk here than on Polymarket.
The $75,000-$77,000 year-end consensus also creates a liquidity cliff: if Bitcoin holds above $80,000, late entrants buying the retrace face month-end resolution that locks capital for weeks. Sophisticated traders will size positions against the term structure, not just the spot price.
This bearish year-end repricing extends Kalshi's recent bid to become a genuine price-discovery node for crypto, after its 15-minute Bitcoin contracts showed signs of leading Binance moves just days earlier.