Jefferies: Prediction market volume jumps 55% to new record in October
Prediction market volume surged 55% to reach a new record in October, according to a Jefferies research note. The report cited Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group as key players. Daily trading volume hit $4.13 billion. Sports event contracts remained a major driver of activity. The data reflects growth across the sector, including the Rothera joint venture launched by Robinhood and Susquehanna in June.
The 55% monthly jump confirms that prediction market liquidity is now deep enough to attract institutional desks sizing up entry points. Kalshi's 81% share of October's $120.7 billion total means volume concentration risk sits squarely on one platform, and any regulatory freeze or operational outage would ripple across the entire sector.
Robinhood routes event-contract flow through partner infrastructure it does not fully control. The Rothera joint venture with Susquehanna offers co-ownership but not full regulatory insulation; a state geofence or partner failure would force instant volume migration with no fallback exchange. Competitors with direct CFTC designations can pitch stability to users who felt recent disruptions.
Adds to a run of record volume milestones that includes October's $120.7 billion sector total, cementing prediction markets as a trading venue class with derivatives-exchange scale.