Ian Buck tops Polymarket odds for next Nvidia CEO at 30%
Ian Buck, Nvidia's vice president of hyperscale and high-performance computing, leads Polymarket's market on the chipmaker's next chief executive with 30% odds, according to ChainCatcher. News outlet Seeking Alpha later reported the market had moved, with Buck at 35% and finance chief Colette Kress at 30%. The market, offered on Polymarket's CFTC-regulated US platform, resolves December 31, 2028. The contract reflects speculation about succession planning at Nvidia amid reports that the board is preparing to remove Jensen Huang.
The Nvidia CEO market joins the Jensen Huang exit contract already trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, concentrating both platforms' credibility on a single company's governance. Traders now face two linked but differently structured contracts: one on whether Huang departs, another on who replaces him. The 73-percentage-point spread between Kalshi and Polymarket on the exit question already showed pricing disarray across venues.
Adding a successor market with its own liquidity pool compounds execution risk. For corporate governance contracts to mature as a product class, traders need prices to converge toward a single outcome, not fragment by platform. Nvidia's board retains the power to invalidate both contracts by announcing or denying succession plans at any moment.