Ben Ferguson leads Kalshi market for Trump press secretary at 25%
Kalshi traders have priced conservative commentator Ben Ferguson at 25% to become Trump's next White House press secretary. Ferguson tops the regulated exchange's market for the position, ahead of Hogan Gidley at 17% and Scott Jennings. The pricing follows a White House leak about the role, according to reporting. Kalshi's political appointment contracts have drawn increasing trading activity alongside the platform's record midterm volume.
Ferguson's 25% lead on a regulated contract shows political personnel markets are becoming standard Kalshi products alongside elections and impeachments. The leak-driven repricing validates that these markets react to genuine political intelligence, but that same sensitivity makes them targets for manipulation accusations.
State attorneys general in Ohio and Tennessee have already argued event contracts amplify sentiment rather than predict outcomes; a press secretary market fed by anonymous sourcing feeds that critique directly. The contract will trade until the appointment is announced, concentrating reputational risk if the final pick diverges sharply from Kalshi pricing. For a platform counting $3 billion in midterm volume, accuracy on political appointments now matters for legal defense as much as for trader trust.