Kalshi traders called 98% of midterms as election volume hit $2.5 billion
Kalshi traders correctly called 98% of 2026 midterm races and beat television networks by hours in projecting House and Senate control, according to a company recap published November 4, 2026. The platform handled $2.5 billion in total election trading volume, nearly doubling its 2024 total. The recap did not disclose total trader profits, losses, individual account results, or total payouts. The accuracy figure covers races where Kalshi markets settled, not all contests nationwide.
The 98% accuracy figure gives Kalshi its strongest empirical defense yet against state gambling lawsuits in Ohio and Tennessee. State attorneys general there have argued event contracts amplify sentiment rather than predict outcomes; a clean midterm call weakens that claim ahead of likely 2027 proceedings.
The $2.5 billion in volume means any miss would have damaged credibility with millions of retail users entering through Bloomberg and CBS News embeds. Senators Warren and Curtis have already demanded internal trading data under bipartisan deadline. Kalshi now holds a demonstrated forecasting record to counter regulatory pressure. The South Carolina miss noted in related coverage keeps the record from being spotless, giving opponents one opening.
Kalshi's accuracy verdict joins Polymarket's strong 2026 midterm record in giving regulated prediction markets their first cycle of empirical defense against state gambling lawsuits after prior coverage showed both platforms pricing Democratic sweeps above 70%.