Polymarket reprices CLARITY Act odds from 80% peak to 62% as banks reject compromise
Polymarket traders have sharply repriced the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026, with implied probability surging near 80% before retreating to 62% as banks rejected a compromise version of the crypto-regulatory bill. The prediction market contract, which pays out if the bill is signed into law this year, briefly traded as high as 75% and 73% at various points May 11 before the pullback. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to meet May 14 to consider the legislation, which would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets. The price action across the political event contract has tracked growing uncertainty tied to institutional opposition ahead of the committee vote.
Gives Polymarket a live stress test of how its crypto-native user base prices regulatory risk versus traditional institutional signal — if the 62% level holds through the May 14 vote, it validates the platform's role as an early warning system for legislative outcomes; a sharp reversal post-vote risks undermining that narrative with mainstream traders.