New Jersey asks Supreme Court to decide if Kalshi's sports betting is legal

Polymarket lobbies EU and UK for MiFID financial services status

MiFID status would give Polymarket lighter-touch regulation than gambling licenses require in most European jurisdictions, reshaping its cost structure and expansion timeline. The push comes as ESMA has already classified prediction market contracts as derivatives, triggering the EU's binary options ban and threatening operations in member states.

If the UK eases its ban while the EU hardens its stance, Polymarket's lobbying could concentrate its European beachhead in Britain alone. That concentrates political risk in a single regulator. Kalshi faces the same split landscape; whichever platform secures MiFID status first gains a template competitors must match. The classification fight will determine whether European traders access these markets through regulated financial channels or fragment across national gambling regimes.

Kalshi asks CFTC to approve margin trading on event contracts

Kalshi's filing stakes out leverage as the next battleground for regulated prediction markets. If the CFTC approves, Kalshi becomes the first designated contract market to offer borrowed capital on political and sports outcomes, a privilege that would widen its gap over cash-collateralized rivals. The targeted institutional-only framing is a deliberate shield against retail-protective critics who have already sued to halt its sports contracts in multiple states.

Competitors like Robinhood, which relies on partner infrastructure, would face a hard choice: build their own clearing capability or accept permanent product inferiority. The CFTC's decision will also shape what leverage limits look like across the sector, since any template it approves becomes the default that later filers must match or improve. State attorneys general watching Kalshi's legal troubles may treat a leverage greenlight as fresh evidence that federal registration enables gambling expansion they lack power to stop. Kalshi is trading regulatory patience for product depth, and the CFTC's pace now controls who can.

Cathie Wood's ARK buys Kalshi shares across three ETFs, trims Brera

Ark's three-fund purchase turns Kalshi from a private-market curiosity into an ETF-held name with daily mark-to-market discipline. That exposes Kalshi to Ark's redemption-driven volatility, but also gives the prediction-market platform a valuation anchor that RBC Capital's forecast of incumbents benefiting from disruptors including Kalshi and Polymarket can now cite in M&A conversations.

Traditional exchanges weighing event-contract entry get a comparable: Kalshi's private-market clearing price, multiplied by Ark's known cost basis. Kalshi itself, the stake validates its CFTC-regulated model against unregistered competitors, yet ties its narrative to Ark's own performance. If prediction-market volume slips this quarter, Wood's funds will trim as mechanically as they bought, and Kalshi will have no lock-up to slow the exit.

Kalshi parlay maker fees hit $26 million in first four weeks

The $26 million haul proves Kalshi can extract direct revenue from a product category that competes with sportsbook parlays without matching their odds-tax model. Brokers like Robinhood, which offer Kalshi event contracts, now see a regulated alternative that monetizes engagement at scale. That pressures DraftKings and FanDuel to defend their parlay dominance against a CFTC-regulated rival.

For ForecastEx and smaller venues, the fee benchmark sets a profitability standard they must hit to justify similar product builds. Polymarket has tested parlays, but Kalshi's scale widens its lead. An upcoming Bloomberg event on US stock event contracts could layer equity parlays on top, compounding the advantage.

The fee haul follows Kalshi's single-stock perpetual futures filing and comes amid its brokerage distribution deals, proving direct monetization alongside product and reach expansion.