After an apparent PR blunder on Tuesday that jumped the gun on an announced content deal between Elon Musk’s company xAI and Kalshi, a Wednesday X post from the official X account cleared up the confusion (well, sort of).
Recent speculation about xAI's involvement in the prediction market space has been circulating. While we’re enthusiastic about the potential of this industry and engaged in various discussions, no formal partnerships have been confirmed to date. Stay tuned!
— X (@X) May 21, 2025
Update: Kalshi rescinds xAI deal announcement
On Tuesday afternoon, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour deleted his X and LinkedIn posts from earlier in the day confirming a deal with xAI to provide content.
Bloomberg reported that the “details of the announcement had not been mutually confirmed.” The details of the possible deal remain unknown.
After rubbing it all around... sheesh....
— Alfonso Straffon 🇨🇷🇺🇸🇲🇽 (@astraffon) May 21, 2025
Kalshi Pulls Announcement of xAI Tie-Up Hours After Touting Deal pic.twitter.com/L4L34aBGFT
Original story
Kalshi announced a new partnership with xAI, Elon Musk’s AI company on Tuesday. The AI algorithm will give customers trading advice by drawing from news reports and other sources of publicly available information.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour hoped the partnership would “shape the future of news and information.” The dream is to consolidate information into a clear probability instead of having to grapple with the uncertainty that comes with relying on information from pundits, journalists, or authorities.
No one has fought for truth harder than Elon Musk. He has inspired me at every step.
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) May 20, 2025
I could not be more excited to announce Kalshi’s upcoming partnership with xAI to further take prediction markets mainstream.
Together, we’ll shape the future of news and information. pic.twitter.com/12kbi8ucEi
Kalshi has made powerful allies in service to that goal. Shortly after the 2024 election, Kalshi executives met President-elect Trump at UFC 309. Kalshi’s election odds were among the sources the Trump team consulted on election night as Trump’s victory took shape. Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor only a few weeks later.
That was only the beginning of Kalshi’s connections to the new administration.
Elon Musk, Brian Quintenz, and DOGE
Elon Musk’s enthusiasm about prediction markets predates Kalshi’s commercial success. Musk posted about his preference for crypto prediction market platform Polymarket over traditional electoral polls. Musk’s support for one of the United States’ fastest-growing prediction market platforms (Kalshi) is unsurprising in that light.
A former Kalshi board member, Brian Quintenz, is also Trump’s nominee to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). So, Kalshi could soon have a former board member as its regulator.
Members of the Kalshi team have even gone into government.
- Former Director of Business Development Samantha Schwab became Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Deputy Chief of Staff.
- Kalshi’s Chief Legal and Regulatory Officer, Eliezer Mishory, went on to lead the DOGE team at the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The connections between Kalshi and the Trump administration promise support even as state sports betting regulators push back against Kalshi’s expansion.
Kalshi had favor in current administration
In 2023, Kalshi sued the CFTC to defend its right to offer contracts on election outcomes. That effort was successful in October 2024, when the final stays were dissolved and the contracts could go live. The CFTC and Kalshi agreeing to dismiss the election contracts lawsuit in May 2025 finalized the victory for Kalshi in that matter.
Kalshi’s expansion into sports has met little pushback from its federal regulator, at least so far. State gaming regulators, on the other hand, have filed cease-and-desist letters that Kalshi is now fighting in court.
While Kalshi may continue to face resistance, the consensus is that it won’t come from the federal government. That is, so long as the company maintains its deep and growing connections to the Trump administration.
