Acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham announced on Thursday that she would leave the CFTC once Trump’s nominee for chairman, Brian Quintenz, is confirmed. Her ISDA speech reaffirmed her plans to “return to the private sector” that she first alluded to in her May 5 Milken Institute Global Conference interview.
“While I don’t have any specific plans for what’s next for me personally yet, I hope to make some over the next several months,” Pham said in her ISDA remarks.
Democratic Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero followed with her own announcement of her resignation date on Friday. Romero originally announced her plan to step down from the CFTC on Feb. 26, shortly after the previous chairman, Rostin Behnam, resigned. Her last day will be May 31. And another commissioner, Summer Mersinger (Republican), also announced her resignation from the CFTC last week. Mersinger departs the CFTC to become Blockchain Association’s CEO, and her final day will be May 30.
These planned departures would leave Republican Brian Quintenz as chairman and Democrat Kristin Johnson as the two remaining commissioners. President Trump would then have to nominate another person to fill the CFTC’s remaining Democratic position and two others for the two vacant Republican positions.
Brian Quintenz’s approaching confirmation hearing
Quintenz is still awaiting his hearing before the Senate Agricultural Committee. (The first regulated derivatives were wheat futures, so this committee still oversees the CFTC.) Once Quintenz’s hearing is announced, his confirmation vote should take place days afterward.
For example, controversial Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth had his hearing on Jan. 14 and was confirmed on Jan. 24. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem had her confirmation hearing on Jan. 17 and got her vote on Jan. 25. Consequently, Quintenz’s confirmation hearing date will provide a better idea of how soon he is likely to take the reins of the CFTC.
While Quintenz’s confirmation hearing still hasn’t been scheduled, his incoming chairmanship is looming over more than just CFTC staffing. His absence was one of the reasons canceling the roundtable intended to clarify prediction market policy may have been a good idea.
Quintenz could greenlight sports contracts, if given the chance
At the beginning of her term as acting chairman, Pham announced a prediction market roundtable that would clarify the rules about election contracts, including which topics were off-limits. The exact date for the roundtable never formally announced, though there was an industry-wide consensus that it would be held on or around April 30, the final day of the month.
Once the roundtable was officially canceled – by letting individual attendees know after they had booked travel accommodations – it seemed questions around event contracts’ boundaries would be decided by the courts instead.
Given the number of cases in court, the canceled roundtable may not be a bad thing. Court rulings in Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, or a new jurisdiction could leave the CFTC’s hands tied with regard to enforcement of limits on sports contracts. The number of legal challenges still up in the air make waiting for the roundtable prudent.
However, Quintenz may not choose to hold a roundtable at all. Clear-eyed in his mission and interpretation of federal law and CFTC regulations, it’s possible he could sign off on sports, election, and other event contracts previous administrations wouldn’t have touched. This, of course, would bode well for Kalshi and any other regulated prediction market exchanges.
