On Monday, the president-elect’s son, Donald Trump Jr, joined the prediction market platform Kalshi as a strategic advisor.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market that offers bets on yes or no outcomes. On Election night, Kalshi showed Trump with a 55% chance of winning the election. The forecast proved prescient, as Kalshi generated more than $400 million in election bets.
In a statement on X, Trump Jr. noted that he followed Kalshi on election night to see how the race was unfolding.
On Election night at Mar-a-Lago, while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used the prediction market @Kalshi to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media.
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) January 13, 2025
I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission. Today, I am proud to…
Kalshi sued its regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2023 to list markets on the presidential election’s outcome. In October 2024, Kalshi won the right to list its markets. Litigation with the CFTC is ongoing, with oral arguments before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on Jan. 17.
Trump Jr’s support is a favorable sign for Kalshi and prediction markets.
Why Trump Jr fits well with Kalshi
After the election, prediction markets have been able to present themselves as alternatives to traditional institutions like polls, punditry, and some news reports. That anti-establishment view fits within the MAGA movement’s distrust of “elites.”
In an interview with CNBC, Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour explained how Trump Jr’s interest in Kalshi was piqued.
“He understands…this notion that people have been ready to fire traditional institutions and authorities and basically got tired of fake news,” Mansour said. “That’s why they’re going to Twitter. That’s why they’re going to prediction markets.”
Trump’s advisors and cabinet include people who prefer prediction markets over traditional polls and news outlets. Elon Musk reposted a screenshot of Polymarket on Oct. 7, 2024 and called it “more accurate than polls.”
Trump’s pick to head the SEC has stated that his agency shouldn’t regulate crypto products, clarifying a key regulatory issue the crypto industry, which operates many prediction markets, requires.
To top it off, Kalshi’s former Director of Business Development, Samantha Schwab, will be the Deputy Chief of Staff for Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent.
Kalshi’s close ties with the incoming administration are strategic for both a growing prediction market and a political movement critical of many centralized authorities.