What to know:
- Kalshi correctly predicted 11 out of 15 Grammy markets, while Polymarket got five out of nine right.
- Prediction markets saw millions of dollars in bets, with Kalshi’s total Grammy trading volume reaching $5,595,440 and Polymarket’s hitting $3,842,775.
- The biggest prediction miss was Best Country Song, where Kalshi and Polymarket bettors significantly overestimated Shaboozey’s A Bar Song (Tipsy).
This year’s Grammys were a little different than previous years with it all being a fundraiser for the Los Angeles fires. Outside of the fundraiser aspect, the Grammys went forward as usual.
Records were broken, many artists won their first Grammy, and there were of course surprises and snubs. The star-studded night was filled with fiery performances and passionate speeches about the music industry, political climate, and the LA fires.
As with all major events, millions of dollars were bet on the Grammys on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi had 15 category markets and Polymarket had nine.
The markets ranged from a trading volume of $10,000 to close to $2 million. Let’s take a look at each market to see what the markets got right and wrong.
Category Name | Winner | Winner %
(12 Hrs Before @Kalshi) |
Kalshi
Favorite (12 Hrs Before) |
Kalshi
Trading Volume |
Album of the Year | Cowboy Carter – Beyoncé | 29% | Hit Me Hard & Soft – Billie Eilish (49%) | $1,640,927 |
Song of the Year | Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar | 15% | Birds of a Feather – Billie Eilish (71%) | $1,618,125 |
Best New Artist | Chappell Roan | 75% | Chappell Roan
(75%) |
$824,695 |
Record of the Year | Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar | 18% | Espresso – Sabrina Carpenter (59%) | $689,146 |
Best Pop Solo Performance | Espresso – Sabrina Carpenter | 65% | Espresso – Sabrina Carpenter (65%) | $185,224 |
Best Country Album | Cowboy Carter – Beyoncé | 74% | Cowboy Carter – Beyoncé
(74%) |
$159,184 |
Best Country Song | The Architect – Kacey Musgraves | 9% | A Bar Song (Tipsy) – Shaboozey (68%) | $138,710 |
Best Rap Album | Alligator Bites Never Heal – Doechii | 55% | Alligator Bites Never Heal – Doechii (55%) | $117,439 |
Best Rap Song | Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar | 90% | Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar (90%) | $64,678 |
Best Pop Vocal Album | Short n’ Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter | 47% | Short n’ Sweet – Sabrina Carpenter (47%) | $51,027 |
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance | Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars | 87% | Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars (87%) | $32,100 |
Best R&B Song | Saturn – SZA | 66% | Saturn – SZA
(66%) |
$32,018 |
Best Rap Performance | Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar | 78% | Not Like Us – Kendrick Lamar (78%) | $21,031 |
Producer of the Year, Non-Classical | Daniel Nigro | 82% | Daniel Nigro (82%) | $10,952 |
Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical | Amy Allen | 85% | Amy Allen (85%) | $10,184 |
2025 Grammys prediction market performance on Kalshi
Kalshi bettors performed impressively with their Grammy markets. Not only did the total trading volume of these markets amount to $5,595,440, but the bettors also got 11 out of 15 markets correct. Essentially, for 11 markets, the most likely winner was the actual winner.
Three of the mistakes were in the Big 4 categories which are notorious for being difficult to predict – Album of the Year, Song of the Year, Record of the Year. But they were able to predict Chappell Roan for Best New Artist.
The fourth mistaken prediction was Best Country Song where they predicted A Bar Song (Tipsy) by Shaboozey at 68% but Kacey Musgraves’ The Architect won and was at a lower predicted rate of 9%. This is a 59% disparity and the largest one.
Not far behind is Song of the Year. users predicted Billie Eilish’s Birds of a Feather (71%) would win, but Kendrick Lamar’s Not Like Us won (15%). This is a 56% disparity. The Album of the Year and Record of the Year disparities were smaller at 20% and 41%, respectively.
While Kalshi traders may have gotten these four wrong, many other experts did not. We spoke with experts who correctly predicted these categories and publications like Variety got Album of the Year and Record of the Year correctly.
KENDRICK LAMAR WINS RECORD OF THE YEAR FOR “NOT LIKE US”
— FADE (@FadeAwayMedia) February 3, 2025
AND THE WHOLE ARENA WAS SINGING ALONG WHEN WE WENT UP TO THE STAGE
LMFAOOOOO#GRAMMYs pic.twitter.com/RYaCh0Sk3W
2025 Grammys prediction market performance on Polymarket
Polymarket bettors made the same mistakes as the Kalshi bettors. Of the nine markets and total trading volume of $3,842,775, the same four markets were incorrectly guessed – Best Country Song, Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and Song of the Year.
Unsurprisingly, the three markets of the Big 4 that they got wrong are also the largest Grammy markets on Polymarket. Unlike Kalshi, Polymarket’s Best New Artist market was significantly smaller than the other three categories.
The disparities are also slightly larger in these three Polymarket markets – Song of the Year (59%), Record of the Year (43%), and Best Country Song (72%). The country category’s disparity is 3% larger than Kalshi’s. But Polymarket’s market is $70,000 more than Kalshi’s
And while Polymarket’s Album of the Year category is $200,000 more than Kalshi’s, every other category is similar or larger on Kalshi.
Unlike the Golden Globes where there were huge surprises, most of the wins weren’t too surprising. No one unexpected won most of the categories, it was typically someone who was anywhere from most to third most expected.
While Cowboy Carter and Not Like Us were not the top pick winners in the Big 4, they were still front-runners in their respective categories on Kalshi and Polymarket. If Jacob Colier won Album of the Year, it would be a real surprise as opposed to Beyoncé.
One category that was a surprise to some (Beyoncé included) was her win for Best Country Album. After being completely shut out of the Country Music Awards, the Recording Academy sent a loud message to the music industry.
Beyoncé was left in shock as she wins Best Country Album at the 2025 #Grammys for her album "Cowboy Carter" 🏆👑
— The Beat Boulevard (@thebeatblvd_) February 3, 2025
pic.twitter.com/1SAloOIElM
The Grammys and the Golden Globes are yet another example of how unpredictable prediction markets can be. For the Golden Globes, Kalshi markets were only right for 14 out of the 25 markets. However, for the Grammys, the Kalshi markets performed significantly better.
This may be due to a more informed audience. Music is widely accessible, and opinions are more available, whereas many Golden Globe-nominated films are indie films that have limited theatrical releases or are not yet available on major streaming platforms.
Take this knowledge into account as you slide into betting on the Oscars – learn all you can from a variety of sources and opinions. In the end, the smartest bet is an informed one.