What to know:
- Kalshi bettors correctly predicted 14 out of 26 Golden Globe markets, with total trading volume across all markets reaching $1.1 million.
- The increasingly international and diverse Golden Globes voting body significantly impacted who won the awards, like Fernanda Torres for Best Actress.
- Successful bets come from looking closely at past winners, comparing expert opinions across multiple sources, and considering dark horse nominees — not just following popular sentiment.
The Golden Globes were held on Jan. 5, 2025, and most people were pleasantly surprised with this year’s ceremony. After Jo Koy’s negatively received hosting gig last year, Nikki Glaser’s opening monologue and overall hosting ability were praised.
The star-studded night was filled with everyone from pop star Ariana Grande to film legend Harrison Ford. With over 25 categories in television and film, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi bet more than $1.1 million on the Golden Globes’ outcomes.
The markets ranged from a trading volume of $4,000 all the way up to over $150,000.
Many of these markets were heated competitions between two or more nominees, with the favorite constantly changing as we inched closer to the golden hour. However, not all favorites came out on top.
Let’s take a look at how Kalshi bettors predicted the Golden Globe 2025 winners.
2025 Golden Globes prediction market performance on Kalshi
| Category | Winner | Winner Chances
3 Days Before 1/2/25 @8pm |
Winner Chances
1 Day Before 1/4/25 @8pm |
Winner Chances
8 Hours Before 1/5/24 @12pm |
Most Popular Choice
8 Hours Before 1/5/24 @12pm |
Trading Volume |
| Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama | Fernanda Torres | 19% | 10% | 10% | Angelina Jolie
(63%) |
$155,078 |
| Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy | Sebastian Stan | 20% | 17% | 17% | Jesse Eisenberg
(41%) |
$120,724 |
| Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy | Emilia Pérez | 12% | 24% | 22% | Anora
(64%) |
$95,955 |
| Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama | Adrien Brody | 78% | 62% | 73% | Adrien Brody
(73%) |
$93,798 |
| Best Score | Challengers | 25% | 8% | 13% | The Brutalist
(51%) |
$80,204 |
| Best Director | Brady Corbet | 63% | 75% | 67% | Brady Corbet
(67%) |
$74,844 |
| Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture | Zoe Saldaña | 60% | 65% | 66% | Zoe Saldaña
(66%) |
$52,181 |
| Best Song | El Mal (Emilia Pérez) | 38% | 33% | 35% | Kiss the Sky (The Wild Robot)
(41%) |
$52,119 |
| Best Screenplay | Conclave | 10% | 8% | 14% | Anora
(63%) |
$50,882 |
| Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy | Demi Moore | 6% | 6% | 5% | Mikey Madison
(78%) |
$47,150 |
| Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture | Kieran Culkin | 72% | 78% | 79% | Kieran Culkin
(79%) |
$43,326 |
| Animated Film | Flow | 23% | 27% | 27% | The Wild Robot (73%) | $42,901 |
| Best Motion Picture – Drama | The Brutalist | 73% | 74% | 72% | The Brutalist
(72%) |
$32,244 |
| Best Standup Performance | Ali Wong | 15% | 5% | 7% | Nikki Glaser
(69%) |
$26,028 |
| Best Television Series – Comedy or Musical? | Hacks | 82% | 86% | 81% | Hacks
(81%) |
$25,560 |
| Best Actress in a Limited Series | Jodie Foster | 12% | 39% | 31% | Cristin Milioti
(66%) |
$21,835 |
| Best Supporting Actor on TV | Tadanobu Asano | 20% | 9% | 10% | Ebon Moss-Bachrach
(80%) |
$18,707 |
| Best Television Series – Limited Series | Baby Reindeer | 78% | 79% | 74% | Baby Reindeer
(74%) |
$15,930 |
| Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama | Anna Sawai | 88% | 88% | 88% | Anna Sawai
(88%) |
$14,936 |
| Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy | Jeremy Allen White | 56% | 43% | 43% | Adam Brody
(55%) |
$14,819 |
| Non-English Language Film | Emilia Pérez | 77% | 83% | 88% | Emilia Pérez
(88%) |
$14,526 |
| Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy | Jean Smart | 91% | 94% | 93% | Jean Smart
(93%) |
$9,895 |
| Best Actor in a Limited Series | Colin Farrell | 43% | 38% | 38% | Richard Gadd
(55%) |
$9,650 |
| Best Television Series – Drama | Shōgun | 94% | 97% | 96.10% | Shōgun
(96.1%) |
$6,961 |
| Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama | Hiroyuki Sanada | 92% | 92% | 91% | Hiroyuki Sanada (91%) | $5,414 |
| Best Supporting Actress on TV | Jessica Gunning | 90% | 90% | 90% | Jessica Gunning
(90%) |
$4,804 |
Out of the 26 markets, Kalshi bettors correctly predicted 14 out of 26 choices, hitting at about 54% clip.
For many of these, the most popular choice wasn’t too far from the actual winner. Essentially, it was a close race and it’s not too surprising they were wrong. However, for some, the numbers were extremely skewed and the winner seemingly came out of nowhere.
Demi Moore wins the Golden Globe for Best Actress
In the Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy category, Kalshi users did not expect Demi Moore to win. In fact, she was at an abysmal 5% the morning of the awards ceremony.
Mikey Madison was considered the expected winner, with a 78% chance in this category — in other words, she would’ve been a -355 moneyline favorite using American betting odds. Many experts, including Variety and USA Today, put their chips behind Madison as well.
In Variety’s case, they had Moore listed in third, while Kalshi had her fourth below Madison, Karla Sofia Gascón, and Cynthia Erivo. Those who backed Moore at her 5¢ price tag made quite a profit.
Prediction News Pro Tip: The Golden Globes is one of the major precursor awards for the Oscars and can drastically shift the perception of who will be the winner of the respective category. While you want to keep the Golden Globes in mind, don’t put all the weight on it. There are still other precursor awards coming up like the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
The Kalshi Best Actress Oscars market has already reacted to this win. The day before the Golden Globes Moore was resting at a similar 6¢, but her price has since spiked to 33¢.
Tadanobu Asano wins the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor
While Moore and Madison had a 73% split the morning of the ceremony, the Best Supporting Actor’s category has a similarly sized split – 70%. Most Kalshi users expected Ebon Moss-Bachrach from The Bear to win this category after his win at the 2024 Emmys.
To their surprise, Shogun’s Tadanobu Asano won the award. Moss-Bachrach was predicted to win at 80%, while Asano was at 10%. Interestingly, not all the experts were as sure of Moss-Bachrach as bettors were.
On Variety, they predicted Moss-Bachrach in the third spot and had Asano in the fifth spot. However, Vanity Fair correctly predicted Asano would win.
Prediction News Pro Tip: Don’t only read one source before you make your bet. Over 10 large publications released their predictions for the Golden Globes.
In terms of the television categories, this is definitely the largest difference between what prediction markets expected and what actually happened.
Fernanda Torres wins the Golden Globe for Best Actress
It turns out there was a huge surprise in store for the most popular Golden Globes market. In our Golden Globes predictions, we highlighted Torres as a potential dark horse. With just a 10% chance, she did take the award at the ceremony.
Most of the experts were guessing either Angelina Jolie or Nicole Kidman. Again, Variety was one of the few that predicted Torres would win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama. There is one key factor that most experts didn’t consider when making this prediction – the Golden Globes voting body is increasingly more international.
The voting body for the Golden Globes currently numbers 334 and is made up of experienced entertainment journalists representing 85 countries.
With the voting body spanning 85 countries, they are more likely and open to vote for an international star than ever before. We already saw the effects of this when the nominations came out. The French film Emilia Peréz was the most nominated movie for a comedy/musical in Golden Globes history.
Prediction News Pro Tip: Who are the people voting? If it’s journalists in the United States, they may vote completely differently from a much more internationally diverse voting body.
Prior to the Golden Globes, Torres had merely a 1% chance to win the Oscars in the Best Actress category. Now, her chances have risen to 13%. In the Kalshi market on who will get a nomination, Torres went from 8% to 48%.
The Golden Globes teaches bettors important lessons on how to bet. Don’t just vote on the obvious and popular choice. Wicked may be the movie everyone is talking about, but that doesn’t mean it is going to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Take a look at past winners and nominees, listen to other experts, and form your own opinions.
