2025 Grammy Predictions: Who Will Win Song of the Year?

With Grammy betting markets in full swing, the Song of the Year race has fans and bettors alike debating frontrunners, underdogs, and potential surprises

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The 2025 Grammy nominations have been announced and predictions markets for the event have already launched. With huge names like Beyoncé and Taylor Swift among the nominees, everyone is weighing in on who’s winning what. 

For Song of the Year, one of the most competitive categories, the Kalshi market already has a trading volume of over $225,000 with more than 2.5 months from the event.

An important thing to understand is what this Grammy is for. Unlike Record of the Year, it isn’t for the production of the song and is not given to the producers of the song

Song of the Year is all about the songwriters and the song’s melodic and lyrical composition.  Essentially, a song’s good beat isn’t enough to win this category.

Sign up on Kalshi to bet on the Grammys— click here!

Song of the Year Grammy Nominees

Before you bet on Kalshi, here is what you should know about who’s won before and each nominee:

Birds of a Feather

  • Songwriter(s): Billie Eilish O’Connell & Finneas O’Connell
  • Performing Artist: Billie Eilish
  • Release Date: May 17, 2024
  • Spotify Streams: 1.4 billion 
  • YouTube Music Video Views: 86 million
  • Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 0
  • Current Chance of Winning: 47% as of Nov. 11, 2024

 

Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas are not new to the Grammy world. Eilish has already won 9 and Finneas has won 10. They also have already won Song of the Year twice before with 2020’s “Bad Guy” and last year’s “What Was I Made For” from the Barbie soundtrack.

“Birds of a Feather” didn’t hit the No.1 spot on the Hot 100 but got to the No. 1 spot on the Global 200 and Global Excl. U.S. charts.

If she wins this Grammy, it would be her third win in the category. However, since she already won last year, does that hurt her chances of winning this year?

Not Like Us

  • Songwriter(s): Kendrick Lamar
  • Performing Artist: Kendrick Lamar
  • Release Date: May 4, 2024
  • Spotify Streams: 891 million
  • YouTube Music Video Views: 171 million
  • Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 2 non-consecutive weeks
  • Current Chance of Winning: 35% as of Nov. 11, 2024

 

Kendrick Lamar has already won 17 Grammys and has been nominated 57 times. “Not Like Us” was nominated in a total of 6 categories – clearly on the mind of The Recording Academy voters. 

This song is part of the heated and highly publicized Kendrick-Drake feud. Not only did it peak twice on the Hot 100 chart, the song broke the record for most weeks at the top of the Hot Rap Songs Chart

If you look at past winners, the last hip-hop song to win was in 2019 for Childish Gambino’s “This is America.” Does this mean it’s time for a hip-hop winner? If history has shown anything, Lamar’s chances are slim.

Please Please Please

  • Songwriter(s): Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff & Sabrina Carpenter
  • Performing Artist: Sabrina Carpenter
  • Release Date: Jun. 6, 2024
  • Spotify Streams: 993 million
  • YouTube Music Video Views: 145 million
  • Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 1 week
  • Current Chance of Winning: 10% as of Nov. 11, 2024

 

Sabrina Carpenter was nominated for the first time this year and received six nominations. With the other nominations for her album “Short n’ Sweet” and song “Espresso,” Song of the Year is the only category “Please Please Please” was nominated in. 

This song is Carpenter’s first song to hit No. 1 and the only song from the album to do so. And while this may be her first round of the Grammys, her co-songwriters, Amy Allen and Jack Antonoff are Grammy veterans.

In fact, Antonoff has won 11 Grammys including once for Song of the Year when he was part of the band Fun in 2013. Allen only has one Grammy win for Album of Year thanks to writing credits on Harry Styles’ album, “Harry’s House.”

Good Luck, Babe!

  • Songwriter(s): Kayleigh Rose Amstutz, Daniel Nigro & Justin Tranter 
  • Performing Artist: Chappell Roan
  • Release Date: Apr. 5, 2024
  • Spotify Streams: 931 million
  • YouTube Music Video Views: N/A
  • Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 0
  • Current Chance of Winning: 7% as of Nov. 11, 2024

 

Similar to Carpenter, this is also Chappell Roan’s first Grammys, and has also received six nominations in the exact same six categories as Carpenter. However, unlike Carpenter’s “Please Please Please,” “Good Luck, Babe!” is nominated in three categories including this one. 

“Good Luck, Babe!” has not reached the No. 1 spot on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart with a peak at No. 4 on September 28, 2024.

Roan wrote this song with two veterans of the songwriting game – Daniel Nigro & Justin Tranter. Nigro has one Grammy win for writing credits on Olivia Rodrigo’s debut album, “Sour,” while Tranter has three nominations including this one.

Texas Hold ‘Em

  • Songwriter(s): Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro & Raphael Saadiq
  • Performing Artist: Beyoncé
  • Release Date: Feb. 11, 2024
  • Spotify Streams: 563 million
  • YouTube Music Video Views:  N/A
  • Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 2 weeks
  • Current Chance of Winning: 6% as of Nov. 11, 2024

 

Beyoncé has been in the business for many years and her number of wins and nominations is a testament to that. Beyoncé now has the highest number of nominations with 99 and wins with 32. She is also the most nominated artist at this year’s Grammys with 11 nominations.

This year, her nominations are crossing many genres including Best Americana Performance, Best Country Song, Best Melodic Rap Performance, and Best Pop Solo Performance, with “Texas Hold ‘Em” specifically receiving three nominations including Song of the Year.

This song also broke many records like topping the Hot Country Songs chart and making Beyoncé the first Black woman to do so. However, compared to the previous four songs, her numbers are lower in terms of Spotify listens for this song.

More Song of the Year Grammy Nominations

As of Nov. 11, 2024, these songs are all predicted at lower than 5% chance. However, it doesn’t mean they don’t have a chance of winning the award. 

Bruno Mars has won the award twice in the last seven years but Gaga has never won this award. But “Die With A Smile” is insanely popular. In less than three months, the song has almost a billion listens on Spotify.

Taylor Swift is also a likely contender. She is the songwriter with the most Song of the Year nominations in Grammy history with eight nominations. Surprisingly, she has never won the award. Perhaps, this year is her first. However, compared to her previous nominations in this category, this song is not her strongest submission.

And for Shaboozey, this is his first year of nominations as well. And the song has broken records sitting at the No. 1 spot for 17 weeks. 

Die With A Smile

  • Songwriter(s): Dernst Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars & Andrew Watt
  • Performing Artist: Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
  • Release Date: Aug. 16, 2024
  • Spotify Streams: 909 million
  • YouTube Music Video Views: 281 million
  • Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 0
  • Current Chance of Winning: 4% as of Nov. 11, 2024

A Bar Song (Tipsy)

  • Songwriter(s): Sean Cook, Jerrel Jones, Joe Kent, Chibueze Collins Obinna, Nevin Sastry & Mark Williams
  • Performing Artist: Shaboozey
  • Release Date: Apr. 12, 2024
  • Spotify Streams: 894 million
  • YouTube Music Video Views: 129 million
  • Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 17 non-consecutive weeks
  • Current Chance of Winning: 4% as of Nov. 11, 2024

Fortnight

  • Songwriter(s): Jack Antonoff, Austin Post & Taylor Swift
  • Performing Artist: Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone
  • Release Date: Apr. 18, 2024
  • Spotify Streams: 724 million
  • YouTube Music Video Views: 120 million
  • Weeks Spent No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100: 2 weeks
  • Current Chance of Winning: 3% as of Nov. 11, 2024

Past Song of the Year Grammy Award Winners

Before we make our rammy Song of the Year predictions, here’s a look at past Song of the Year winners, dating back to 2010.

Year Song Songwriter(s) Performing Artist
2010 Single Ladies 

(Put a Ring on It)

Thaddis Harrell

Beyoncé Knowles

Terius Nash

Christopher Stewart

Beyoncé
2011 Need You Now Dave Haywood

Josh Kear

Charles Kelley

Hillary Scott

Lady A
2012 Rolling in the Deep Adele Adkins

Paul Epworth

Adele
2013 We Are Young Nate Ruess

Jack Antonoff

Jeff Bhasker

Andrew Dost

Fun
2014 Royals Joel Little

Ella Yelich-O’Connor 

Lorde
2015 Stay with Me James Napier

William Phillips

Sam Smith

Sam Smith
2016 Thinking Out Loud Ed Sheeran

Amy Wadge

Ed Sheeran
2017 Hello Adele Adkins

Greg Kurstin

Adele
2018 That’s What I Like Christopher Brody Brown

James Fauntleroy

Philip Lawrence

Bruno Mars

Ray Charles McCullough II

Jeremy Reeves

Ray Romulus

Jonathan Yip

Bruno Mars
2019 This Is America Donald Glover

Ludwig Göransson

Jeffery Lamar Williams

Childish Gambino
2020 Bad Guy Billie Eilish O’Connell

Finneas O’Connell

Billie Eilish
2021 I Can’t Breathe Dernst Emile II

H.E.R.

Tiara Thomas

H.E.R.
2022 Leave the Door Open Brandon Anderson

Christopher Brody Brown

Dernst Emile II

Bruno Mars

Silk Sonic
2023 Just Like That Bonnie Raitt Bonnie Raitt
2024 What Was I Made For? Billie Eilish O’Connell

Finneas O’Connell

Billie Eilish

Who will win the 2025 Grammy for Song of the Year?

The answer is very unclear because it’s hard to judge what the Recording Academy will be considering this year as the most important factor. Since 2010, most of the 14 winners were smash hits and very well-known songs. For some, the songs stood out for beautiful lyricism and for others it was catchy melodies.

However, two of those 14 winners were smaller songs, H.E.R.’s “I Can’t Breathe” and Bonnie Raitt’s “Just Like That.” Both of these songs were up against extremely popular songs but ended up winning the award. 

For H.E.R. it was the song’s important message surrounding police brutality, while Raitt’s song was a complete surprise for beating out songs like Adele’s “Easy on Me” or Beyoncé’s “Break My Soul.”

And you can’t look at the streams as a determining factor. Raitt’s “Just Like That” was not only not well-known, but it only has six and a half million listens on Spotify. This is a stark difference to “Easy on Me’s” 1.9 billion listens. 

In the end, predicting the 2025 Grammy winner for Song of the Year remains a tough call. While streaming numbers and chart positions provide clues, the Recording Academy has surprised us in the past by prioritizing artistic depth, cultural impact, or lyrical brilliance over popularity. 

Whether it’s an established favorite like Billie Eilish or a newcomer like Chappell Roan, the award could go in any direction. With such a strong lineup and varying chances, all we can do now is await the big night to see who takes home the coveted trophy.

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