Wisconsin Elections Commission warns voters against betting on elections via Kalshi, Polymarket
The Wisconsin Elections Commission issued guidance on July 21 warning state voters not to wager on election-results contracts at Kalshi and Polymarket before casting ballots in actual elections. The commission cited the federal Stop Trading On Predictions (STOP) Corrupt Bets Act but noted no federal law currently addresses election prediction markets. Both platforms are pushing back against the Wisconsin guidance. The warning came as prediction markets expand their political contract offerings ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with users already able to trade on Wisconsin races for governor and attorney general.
The Wisconsin guidance turns election prediction markets into a voter-integrity issue, not just a securities regulation question. For Kalshi and Polymarket, that reframing is dangerous: it invites secretaries of state and election boards into the fight alongside attorneys general. Wisconsin's warning cites the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, giving the guidance federal legislative cover even without a live law.
Both platforms now face a patchwork where some states treat election contracts as illegal gambling, others as regulated trading, and at least one as a threat to clean elections. The 2026 midterm timeline means more battleground states may issue similar warnings. Traders in swing-state election markets face growing uncertainty about whether their positions will survive the cycle. Each new state guidance chips away at the political-product revenue both platforms have counted on. The platforms must now defend their legitimacy to election officials, not just regulators.
Wisconsin joins New York and Washington as the latest state to challenge prediction market election trading, layering another front onto Kalshi's multi-state preemption fight now headed to the Second Circuit.