JPMorgan backs both Sportradar and Genius Sports on prediction market growth
A J.P. Morgan analyst said Sportradar's prediction market push is meeting expectations in a September 29 investor note. Separately, JPMorgan initiated coverage of rival data supplier Genius Sports at Overweight with an $8 price target on October 1, 2026. The bank cited Genius Sports' prediction-market partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket as an underappreciated growth driver. Neither note disclosed specific revenue figures or product metrics for either company.
Wall Street is now treating sports data suppliers as prediction-market plays first and data vendors second. JPMorgan's dual endorsement means both Sportradar and Genius Sports equity will trade on contract volume at Kalshi and Polymarket rather than on league data fees. That rerating creates a feedback loop: any volume dip at those exchanges punishes the supplier stocks even if the underlying data business is stable.
Genius Sports trades at a sharper discount, so its 40% upside target hinges on Prediction.com proving it can become a standalone consumer venue. The risk is mispriced dependency. Genius Sports nor Sportradar controls the exchange rails that generate the revenue investors now expect.