Scaramucci says Trump will 'go to TACO' on Canada as Polymarket odds hit 8%
Polymarket traders have cut the probability of a US-Canada diplomatic agreement by August 31 to 8%. Anthony Scaramucci, former White House communications director, called it the 'most likely scenario' that Trump 'goes to TACO' on Canada — a reference to the 'Trump Always Chickens Out' meme about backing down from trade threats. The market had previously priced higher odds of a deal. Scaramucci predicted the two countries would reach an agreement 'very quickly.'
The 8% print exposes how prediction-market liquidity fails when contracts mix diplomacy memes with hard deadlines. Traders betting on Trump's 'TACO' pattern are pricing narrative, not policy — and the thin books gap fast when a single voice like Scaramucci's moves sentiment. Polymarket, this is another political contract that reprices on headline noise rather than tradable information.
The August 31 expiration locks in just days, so anyone still holding faces binary settlement with no hedge. Institutional desks already treat these instruments as sentiment overlays; another miss where market odds clash with insider forecasts deepens that skepticism. The reputational cost compounds if media treats the 8% as a failed forecast rather than a thinly traded snapshot.