Robinhood faces outsized exposure to Kalshi charges with majority of prediction volume
Robinhood routes about 60% of its prediction volume through Kalshi, giving it the most to lose among retail brokers from charges against the CFTC-regulated exchange. The platform has relied on Kalshi while shifting volume toward its own Rothera exchange as primary and Crypto.com's OG.com as secondary, with only some football contracts diverted to OG.com since September. The concentration leaves Robinhood without a quick alternative if Kalshi's legal troubles deepen.
Robinhood's $173 million quarterly prediction revenue now depends on a partner facing felony charges and civil suits across multiple states. The platform holds no CFTC designation of its own, so it cannot simply flip volume to an owned exchange if Kalshi halts. The Ohio sports-contract freeze already proved partner-dependent models collapse when states reject federal registration.
Cboe and NYSE are now signing brokers to SEC-regulated binary options that bypass this risk entirely. Robinhood's slow pivot to OG.com is not enough to offset Kalshi exposure. Competitors with direct regulatory licenses can pitch stability to traders who fled interrupted platforms during the August disruption. Robinhood built prediction markets into its largest earnings engine, but the engine is not under its hood.