Report puts offshore prediction market activity at $34B as regulated rivals handle $74B
A Traders Union report says US offshore prediction market activity reached up to $34 billion over a 12-month period, while CFTC-regulated firms including Kalshi, Crypto.com, IBKR ForecastEx, and Gemini processed $74 billion in the same timeframe. The report comes as the CFTC has issued a new rule proposal that makes no mention of offshore prediction markets and gives no indication of separate action against them. The gap between offshore and regulated activity has narrowed, according to other analyses, yet offshore venues continue to attract American traders despite the CFTC ban. The regulated figure covers cumulative operations across the named platforms; the offshore estimate covers wagers by US users through non-regulated platforms.
Kalshi and Crypto.com now face a CFTC rulemaking that ignores the $34 billion offshore pool. If the final rules tighten permitted contracts without addressing offshore competition, regulated venues will lose more flow to unregulated alternatives they cannot legally match.
The $34 billion figure lands as the CFTC proposes sweeping prediction market rules for sports and terrorism contracts, forcing Kalshi and Polymarket to map every product against two simultaneous rulemakings while regulators weigh whether tighter limits would simply push more volume offshore.