Data
Report puts US offshore prediction market activity at up to $34B, says regulated rivals handled $74B
A Traders Union report says US offshore prediction market activity reached up to $34 billion, while CFTC-regulated firms including Kalshi, Crypto.com, IBKR ForecastEx, and Gemini processed $74 billion in the measured 12 months.
Why this matters?
Gives a rare volume comparison between regulated and offshore prediction market activity in the US, suggesting regulated platforms now handle roughly twice the flow of their offshore counterparts.
The bigger picture
Joins a dense cluster of Kalshi and Polymarket developments spanning CFTC rulemakings, state preemption fights, market-maker concentration, and Robinhood's Rothera competition — five distinct storylines now converging on whether regulated volume can hold its lead as the ecosystem fragments.
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