Kalshi and Polymarket traders see S&P 500 adding 6% to 9% by year-end
Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket is pricing the S&P 500 at 7,800 to 8,000 by year-end, representing a gain of roughly 6% to 9% from current levels. The consensus on both platforms points to modest additional upside rather than a major breakout, with traders also seeing further room for the Nasdaq-100 to climb. The range reflects limited conviction in a strong rally even as equities sit near highs. Downside risk remains in view alongside the tempered upside case. The positioning comes as both platforms have drawn fresh professional market-making liquidity and record event-driven volume in recent sessions.
This is a routine consensus price with no stated open interest, volume, or market-maker participation behind the 7,800–8,000 range. Traders cannot size positions from the figure alone, since execution depth and how the new DRW, Wintermute, and IMC desks are quoting these equity-index contracts remain unquantified.