Polymarket and Kalshi offer wildfire contracts, sparking ethics backlash
Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are now offering contracts tied to wildfire outcomes, according to a Marketplace report published July 1, 2026. The contracts have drawn scrutiny over the ethics of allowing users to profit from natural disasters that cause property destruction and loss of life. Polymarket had listed almost 20 wildfire-related questions in January 2025, created by the platform's markets team.
Polymarket and Kalshi, the wildfire contracts surface a reputational risk that predates their push into sports and financial verticals. Both platforms are expanding beyond political events into institutionally tradable markets, with Kalshi pulling $13.5 million in daily fees on World Cup events and Polymarket proving block-size flow capacity with DRW, Wintermute, and IMC.
Disaster-linked contracts threaten to frame the entire event-contract model as socially harmful just as regulated venues seek mainstream legitimacy. State attorneys general already investigating prediction markets gain a concrete narrative: platforms profit from human suffering. The platforms must now decide whether to delist disaster contracts preemptively or defend them under First Amendment and risk-assessment arguments, with each choice shaping how legislators classify event contracts going forward.