Trading
Prediction markets expect 10-year Treasury yields to end 2026 above current levels
Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket largely expect 10-year Treasury yields to end 2026 higher than current levels, with implied chances above current readings. The positioning runs counter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent bond-market intervention aimed at pushing yields lower.
Why this matters?
Shows prediction-market traders are pricing policy skepticism into year-end rate expectations, making these contracts a real-time gauge of market confidence in Treasury interventions.
The bigger picture
Second macro-policy pricing signal this month from Kalshi and Polymarket on Treasury or Fed action, after the platforms' September rate-hold convergence, cementing their shift from political betting to real-time institutional policy forecasting.
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