Kalshi's first block trade signals prediction markets' institutional pivot, says Bernstein

Institutional investors are entering the prediction markets sector through block trades, custom contracts, and shifting U.S. regulatory dynamics, according to a new Bernstein report. The industry has historically been dominated by retail users, but Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, executed the first block trade in the space — a milestone signaling growing acceptance of event contracts among sophisticated investors. The development marks a structural shift toward larger, more organized participation rather than the fragmented retail trading that previously characterized the market. Bernstein's analysis points to this evolution as evidence that prediction markets are maturing into an institutional-grade product category.