Polymarket traders price 85% odds of December Fed hike after hot CPI
Polymarket traders on Nov. 10 priced an 85% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting. The repricing followed an October consumer price index report that beat forecasts with a 0.4% month-over-month increase. Bets on a larger move also increased. The odds came one day after Kalshi traders priced 76% odds of the same Fed hike. Both contracts are drawing scrutiny from regulators amid questions about prediction market accuracy on macro policy.
The 85% print forces a direct comparison with Kalshi's 76% on the identical outcome just 24 hours earlier, splitting the regulated and unregulated venue signal on the same Fed meeting. Traders cannot assume the two markets converge; the 9-point gap implies different participant bases, fee structures, or manipulation risk. For macro desks tracking both, the spread becomes a decision cost.
Polymarket holds higher and proves wrong, its international venue status feeds the credibility attack that Senators Warren and Curtis are sharpening with their demand for internal trading data. A mispriced Fed contract also arms state attorneys general in Ohio and Tennessee who are building gambling lawsuits against event contracts. The dual-venue divergence gives fixed-income traders no clean consensus to trade against CME futures. Kalshi's steadier historical pricing gives it more to lose if its lower number also misses.
Follows a pattern of sharp Fed-odds reversals on prediction markets that Kalshi's recent 84-to-94 point swing already illustrated, raising questions about whether these instruments forecast policy or amplify noise.