Polymarket and Kalshi both price Peltola at 74% in Alaska Senate race
Polymarket and Kalshi both price Alaska Democratic candidate Peltola at 74% to win the Senate race, matching each other exactly. Republican Sullivan sits at 26%. Decision Desk HQ puts Peltola lower, at 60%. The 14-point spread between prediction markets and traditional forecasters highlights disagreement on a 2026 battleground. Democrats last won an Alaska Senate race in 2008. The matched prices follow a climb from 68% on Polymarket just days earlier.
The matched 74% price kills the cross-platform arbitrage that existed moments before convergence. Traders hunting edge between Kalshi and Polymarket now face no spread to harvest on this race. Kalshi, the lockstep climb validates that its narrower user base is not lagging sharper money on a ranked-choice contest that confuses traditional models.
Polymarket, the synchronization removes ammunition for manipulation claims that gain traction when venues diverge sharply. The 14-point gap with Decision Desk HQ keeps a different kind of trade alive: anyone confident the traditional model is wrong can bet the forecast convergence. The platform that reprices first on the next Peltola poll or fundraising flash will earn the flow that currently sits idle.
Becomes the second high-profile Senate race this week where Kalshi and Polymarket have priced in lockstep, following their convergence on Talarico in Texas, and the second Peltola repricing in four days as her odds climb from 68% to 74%.