Polymarket Braves-Mets overtime odds drop to 22.5%
Polymarket's 'Yes' option for overtime in the Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets game dropped to 22.5%, according to Catcher Predict monitoring. Catcher Predict flagged the swing.
These repeated single-hour swings expose Polymarket's baseball liquidity as too thin for stable pricing. A 21-point move in sixty minutes means any trader who entered near the middle faces immediate mark-to-market pain or forced exit. Retail participants bear the slippage risk while larger players time entries around suspected whale-driven repricing.
Kalshi can pitch its own baseball books as more stable if it demonstrates tighter two-sided flow first. Institutional market makers watching sports contract participation will demand proof of depth before committing capital. Each episode weakens that case, and the pattern now spans multiple teams and game types across at least five recent windows.