Polymarket 'alphas' draw scrutiny with reported $40M as platforms cut age floor to 18
An invite-only group of about 30 Polymarket members has reportedly earned an estimated $40 million since 2024, according to reports published October 5. Separately, both Kalshi and Polymarket US lowered their user age floors to 18. The windfall and the onboarding changes come as regulated prediction market platforms face heightened attention to who profits and how younger traders are brought onto the platforms. On Polymarket's international platform, 69.2% of manually operated accounts finished below breakeven, the articles note.
The $40 million figure intensifies calls for transparency on exactly who wins on regulated prediction markets and how. Regulators and state attorneys general already argue these platforms resemble gambling venues; concentrated gains by a small invite-only group gives opponents clear evidence to cite. The lowered age floor to 18 on both Polymarket US and Kalshi raises the stakes: younger traders with less capital are entering a market where most manual accounts lose money.
State lawmakers in New York, Ohio, Tennessee, and Missouri are already pressing gambling-framing cases against CFTC-registered platforms. Any platform that cannot show fair access and consumer protection will become the example that shapes the next legislative crackdown. Polymarket and Kalshi must now defend their trader economics to Congress and to multiple state courts simultaneously.
The scrutiny of Polymarket's high-earning traders lands amid a week of intensifying state enforcement: New York is suing Polymarket, Missouri ordered six platforms to halt sports contracts, and Kalshi lost preemption fights in Ohio and Tennessee that are being copied by other states.