Reuters/Ipsos poll finds bipartisan majority opposes betting on US elections
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published Monday, October 12, found that 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans oppose using prediction markets to bet on US elections. Overall, 63% of respondents opposed betting on election results and 65% opposed betting on US military actions. The survey shows bipartisan public skepticism toward election-linked event contracts, with opposition running higher among Democrats than Republicans. The poll arrives as prediction markets have grown in visibility and trading volume around political events.
This poll gives state attorneys general and gambling-frame opponents fresh public-opposition ammunition against CFTC-registered platforms. Kalshi and Polymarket are already losing federal preemption fights in Ohio and Tennessee, and this data arms defenders of those state actions with voter-backed rhetoric. The partisan gap matters: Republican opposition is softer at 61%, which means platforms' Republican lobbying outreach through figures like Donald Trump Jr. faces a harder sell than expected.
Democratic-majority statehouses, already more skeptical of prediction markets, now have cover to file or escalate suits. Platforms must recalibrate their political argument from raw accuracy claims — Polymarket's primary forecasting wins — toward broader civic-framing defenses, because accuracy alone is not moving public opinion. The tension sharpens ahead of CFTC swaps rulemaking and pending Supreme Court consideration: regulators and justices read polls too.
Comes as prediction-market operators are weaponizing electoral accuracy data — Polymarket's 238-of-273 primary wins and the Brazil polling beat in Study weighs prediction markets and AI against traditional polling — to fend off state gambling suits and federal reclassification.