Onchain data undermines insider-trading theory on Polymarket Senate bets
The Block's onchain analysis of Polymarket account dubdubdub2 found no strong evidence the trader had early access to election polling data. The analysis challenges a New York Times report that raised questions about suspicious activity behind large winning Senate positions. Experts cited in The Block's review noted insufficient proof of an illicit advantage, revealing a broader trading pattern that undermines the insider-trading narrative.
Polymarket's surveillance credibility is on the line. Senators Warren and Curtis have demanded trading data from both Polymarket and Kalshi under bipartisan deadline. The platform must show its internal monitoring caught what outsiders spot, or Congress will treat self-policing as inadequate and impose mandatory surveillance costs on every competitor.
Kalshi disclosed nearly 60 election-trading probes since January to bolster its defense. Polymarket now must demonstrate comparable rigor or look comparatively lax. State attorneys general in Ohio and Tennessee have already stripped federal preemption shields from both platforms. The exchange with the weakest response to Congress will set the transparency standard the entire sector must meet.
This onchain finding joins a string of recent election-trading scrutiny including Vanderbilt researchers flagging suspicious trades ahead of NYT/Siena polls and a separate $200,000 Nebraska probe, as both platforms face parallel pressure from Congress, state attorneys general, and academic watchdogs.