Kalshi traders price low odds of 3% GDP growth this year, diverging from Bessent forecast

Kalshi prediction-market traders are pricing little chance that U.S. GDP growth will hit 3% this year, diverging from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's forecast of booming growth. The disagreement between the regulated prediction market and the Treasury Secretary's economic outlook highlights a gap between official projections and market-implied expectations. The divergence underscores Kalshi's role as a venue for macroeconomic sentiment, with traders on the platform implying lower growth than the administration's target. The pricing gap adds to a recent run of active macro trading on the platform, which has seen recession odds fall to an all-time low and Fed-hike pricing emerge in the past week.