Kalshi traders price 66% odds Trump is impeached before 2028
Kalshi traders are pricing a 66% probability that Donald Trump is impeached before 2028, with a narrower contract showing 29% odds of impeachment before March 1, 2027. The pricing references Trump's first term, which ended with two House impeachments. A secondary contract shows 17% odds of impeachment and removal from office. The market reflects elevated political risk pricing on the CFTC-regulated prediction market platform.
Impeachment contracts are structurally challenging for traders because they lack a fixed settlement trigger and rely on House procedural action rather than an election date. The 66% level prices in sustained institutional conflict, but the 29% shorter-dated contract reveals skepticism about timing: traders see elevated risk without conviction it crystallizes before March 2027.
That gap creates a term-structure trade for political specialists who want exposure to impeachment probability without pinning a specific window. Kalshi, the contract tests whether its regulated book can support long-duration political risk beyond the election cycle, where settlement certainty and liquidity typically fade. Thin institutional participation in open-ended contracts means these prices are more sentiment indicator than tradable edge.