Kalshi Fed hike odds jump to 66% as mortgage rates climb
Kalshi traders are pricing a 66% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting, a move of more than 15 percentage points since September 21. The repricing coincides with mortgage rates reaching a fresh high. Separately, Apify hosts a scraper that pulls Kalshi implied probabilities for the Fed funds rate, displaying bid/ask spreads, volume, and open interest for the rate-decision markets. The tool surfaces real-time contract data for upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings.
The 15-point repricing in four days tests whether Kalshi's rate contracts can handle velocity without the liquidity cracks that have punished Polymarket's Fed prints. Macro desks watching both venues now have a live comparison: Kalshi's 66% October call sits against the memory of Polymarket's 93% September contract that reversed sharply, and the spread between the two books will shape where institutional flow parks for the next Fed cycle.
A sustained Kalshi edge through the October 28-29 meeting would validate the venue's depth claims and draw capital from traders burned by Polymarket's snapbacks. If the 66% level whipsaws on thin volume, Kalshi inherits the same novelty-venue label it has used against rivals. The mortgage-rate driver gives this contract a macro headline to ride, but the true test is whether the book can absorb size without widening spreads into the close. Kalshi has volume and credibility on the line at a moment when venue selection is becoming as tradeable as the Fed call itself.